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According to CNNMoney.com, July 22, 2009, JP Morgan Chase values its non-performing commercial loans at $2.26 billion—quadrupled from $510 million during the same year-over-year period in 2008.
If you have been following the residential mortgage crisis, you know that lenders are inundated with loan modification requests. The fact is, they cannot even answer or return calls, respond to letters from troubled homeowners or begin to negotiate the daily-increasing avalanche of loan defaults.
Here’s the rub: most of the lenders scrambling to keep their level of incapacity in dealing with defaulting homeowners are the same lenders with portfolios and guarantees on hundreds of billions of commercial loans. These include but are not limited to Bank of America, CitiBank, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, Fifth Third Bancorp and JP Morgan Chase, to name a few. As the rate of residential mortgage foreclosures is starting to show signs of slowing, the commercial loan default rate is just in its infancy.
As reported in Forbes.com, July 14, 2009, "Two years after the credit markets began to freeze up, a crisis looms in the $3 trillion commercial real estate market. Investors who need new funding find themselves without any willing lenders while fundamentals like rising vacancy rates and plunging rents worsen."
Also posted by Forbes in the same day, "Although it is smaller than the residential housing market, the deepening U.S. commercial property market bust could have a major impact on the banking system in general and on regional banks in particular. It could also substantially affect non-residential U.S. investment.
Macroeconomic Impact. The Fed estimates that the size of the U.S. commercial property market is $6.5 trillion, or approximately one-third the size of the housing market. Commercial property loans outstanding are an estimated $3.3 trillion, also roughly one-third of the $10 trillion in residential mortgages outstanding. Of the commercial real estate loans outstanding, over half are held by commercial banks, with these loans constituting a very important part of the regional banks' balance sheets. Approximately 25% of commercial property loans are securitized, with most of the remainder being held by life insurance and savings companies.
Further commercial property price declines could torpedo the fragile healing process underway in the banking system by compounding U.S. bank losses. In 1993, less than 2% of U.S. banks and thrifts had exposure to commercial real estate that was more than five times their Tier I capital; by late 2008 that ratio had jumped to 12%, (a 600% increase) involving approximately 800 banks and thrifts. Foresight Analytics, a California-based property consultancy, estimates that the U.S. banking sector could eventually incur commercial real estate loan losses of approximately $250 billion, which could cause another 700 banks to fail.
We believe this may be a conservative estimate, but even if correct, is a harbinger of bad days ahead for the financial services sector. Further, mounting banking losses will only prolong the economic recovery. In hindsight, it may appear that the $787 billion stimulus package may have been too little too late.
As a representative of a commercial property owner, you can best serve your client by being proactive in preventing them from getting caught-up in the looming commercial loan modification frenzy. Once the avalanche of commercial loan defaults occurs, investors will be faced with the same problems that homeowners in default find themselves today: negotiating with lenders with an unskilled workforce attempting to resolve a mountain of mounting mortgage defaults and insufficient resources to tackle but a small percentage of the defaulting loans. For tens of thousands of commercial property investors, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Its called the headlight of an oncoming train, and their commercial property investments are headed for a financing train wreck.
Items required to review Commercial Loan Modification request:
1. All borrower’s information and completed forms typically required for a normal commercial understanding, including a description of the property, monthly income and expense on the subject for current year and annual summaries for the prior two years; a current rent roll (current within 30 days); photos of subject, (four sides plus up and down street scene), a copy of borrower’s (and where applicable, borrowing entity) complete last two years federal and state income tax returns.
2. Summary of the operating issues contributing to the inability of the property to service its current debt or qualify for a refinance of extension of current credit, or summary of anticipated changes in occupancy or other operating results that will adversely affect the debt serviceability of the property.
3. Current loan balance and payment status, copy of payment notices, copy of lender’s correspondence, and a review of pertinent phone conversations to date between borrower and their lender, if any.
4. Copy of existing mortgage loan agreement.
5. If a multifamily property, a written assessment by the leasing agent or resident manager, of the marketability of the units, given their condition, amenity value and size in relation to competing properties in the market area of the subject.
6. A market analysis of the subject, in terms of its competitive stance and attractiveness as a rentable property. Also, the current and 12-month forecast for space in the subject, based on current market conditions in the market area of the subject.
7. A list of all deferred maintenance items and estimated cost to correct.
8. A schedule of any necessary or advisable capital improvements.
9. Copy of an appraisal within the last 12 months, or a current appraisal conducted by an MAI who is on the subject lender's approved appraiser list.
INVESTORS
How Your Loan Can Be An Important Asset
According to CNNMoney.com, July 22, 2009, JP Morgan Chase values its non-performing commercial loans at $2.26 billion—quadrupled from $510 million during the same year-over-year period in 2008.
The current climate for loan modifications has proven one fact: institutional lenders are willing to modify the terms of their loans—including reductions in principal balance—to keep a loan in a current paying status. On their books, this is referred to as a ‘performing loan’, and is an asset. Conversely, a loan in default is a liability. Liabilities equal risk. Obviously banks don’t like risks and will do whatever is commercially possible to avoid them.
The truth is lender risk avoidance can work in your favor. And, given the climate of acceptance for loan modifications, there has never been a better time to negotiate a commercial loan modification, or workout—weather you currently need one or not.
If declining occupancies and rents have substantially reduced or eliminated the ability of your property to service debt, NOW is the time to commence loan modification negotiations. Every 30 days that passes increases your cumulative negative cash flow. The sooner your loan is modified, the sooner the bleeding stops.
How is a defaulting—or prospectively defaulting loan an asset?
Defaulting loans present multifaceted problems for institutional lenders. They represent a very undesirable level of risk—with very real current economic consequences. The truth is, in the present economic environment, with an uncertain future, investors with institutional loans are in a position of leverage over the lenders—for the first time since perhaps the Great Depression.
Even if your property is currently servicing its debt, but there is the real potential that the foreseeable stability of its income is in doubt, NOW is the time to commence loan modification negotiations. Taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach is not prudent. It may be possible to negotiate a reduction in payments on performing commercial loans in advance of the potential for adverse financial performance. This mitigates the issue of having to negotiate a loan modification under financial duress.
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